Tropical Depression BERYL Forecast Discussion Number 13

post from National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) on 28 May 2012 10:58:56 PM. © National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

000WTNT42 KNHC 290258TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220121100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 WHILE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS INLAND...THE CYCLONECONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN ADDITION TOWELL-DEFINED BANDING AS OBSERVED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR AND SATELLITEIMAGERY. PEAK WINDS IN THIS SYSTEM...NEAR 25 KT...HAVE BEENOCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTSAS MEASURED BY SOME WEATHERFLOW WEATHER STATIONS. BERYL IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/3. AS A VIGOROUSSHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THECYCLONE...BERYL WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT A DAY.THE SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THENEXT FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THERIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THETVCA CONSENSUS MODEL. AS LONG AS IT MAINTAINS ITS DEEP CONVECTION...BERYL IS ANTICIPATEDTO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE IT ISMOVING SLOWLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BY WEDNESDAYMORNING...BERYL SHOULD BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. THEREIS A NARROW SWATH OF WARM OCEAN WITHIN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN THECOOL SHELF WATERS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BERYLHAS ABOUT A DAY OF TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM WHILE THE VERTICALSHEAR IS MODERATE TO ALLOW SOME REINTENSIFICATION BACK TO ATROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO A BLENDOF THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS AS WELL AS THEPREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULDTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE FSUCYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. ABSORPTION OF BERYL INTO A LARGEREXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS INDICATED AFTER FOUR DAYS CONSISTENT WITHTHE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THATBERYL MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT VORTEX AND REMAIN INTACT LONGER. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVYRAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ANDSOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 30.8N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 31.3N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 32.1N 81.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 33.2N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 34.6N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/0000Z 37.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$FORECASTER LANDSEA

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